Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
