Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
